Thursday, September 19, 2019

Partisan Gloating

Here is a failure of epistemic humility. I am going to gloat over the failure of people who don't agree with me politically. I am going to point out their failure to update their own beliefs because it is easier to spot the mote in Al Gore's eye rather than the log in my own.

The point being, here are a bunch of failed climate predictions. I have always been skeptical of disaster claims, but honestly I don't think I have ever had good reasons to be skeptical. I have briefly skimmed a few arguments about flaws in the datasets, and I have held a poorly thought out belief in the general resilliance of the environment, and I have held what I think is a bit more robust idea in the power of human ingenuity to solve climate problems as they arise, though in this case many of the problems didn't even arrive to be addressed, despite blowing past all the red line limits that they warned about when I was younger.

So while I am enjoying the little thrill from a win for the tribe I affiliate with, it seems to me that I may have just gotten lucky here, epistemologically speaking. Also lucky that climate change hasn't rendered the world an inhospitable ball of fire and/or ice. But I am more worried about living well than about the destruction of the planet right now.

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